Fault, overload, human factor, birds, fuel and terrorist attack - the editors of "360" systematized the main versions of the crash of the Tu-154 aircraft. Based on the results of the first hours of search operations in the area where the Tu-154 plane crashed in the Black Sea, the following should be stated: the authorities have not yet named the official reasons for the plane crash. However, aviation experts have already expressed several assumptions.
Malfunction and birds
The priority version is considered to be a technical malfunction of the aircraft, engine failure or birds getting into them. Near Sochi there is an ornithological park and a migratory bird station. According to Interfax, citing a source, this could have caused a disaster.
Overload and human factor
Among other versions, piloting error is also given - that is, the human factor. The version about unfavorable weather conditions is completely refuted by the data of the Roshydrometeorological center.
According to the source of the St. Petersburg Internet newspaper Fontanka, the plane crash could have been facilitated by weight overload and an error “on the ground”. So, ground personnel could make violations with the placement of the luggage compartment, which in turn negated the chance of the crew to dive or even land on the tail of the aircraft.
According to Kommersant, the engine failure could have been caused by spoiled fuel, that is, problems when refueling the aircraft with a chemical composition.
Terror attack and hijacking
The circumstances of the plane crash indicate that something extreme happened on board. Vitaly Andreev, former shift supervisor of the main center of the unified air traffic management system of Russia, told RIA Novosti about this. Otherwise, he believes, the crew would have managed to transmit a distress signal.
“It means that something extreme has happened, from practice - such situations are possible when a ship is hijacked,” he said.
Some media (for example, Fontanka), citing sources in the military and law enforcement agencies, cite data that the Russian FSB is already working out the standard version of the terrorist attack. Employees of law enforcement agencies check the likelihood of unauthorized entry of persons into the Chkalovsky military airport and into locality in Adler, where the Tu-154 aircraft was located.
The FSB press service itself does not officially comment on any information. And the Interfax source in the emergency services even states that the terrorist attack is not even included in the main versions and is completely excluded.
The plane was in good order
Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security Viktor Ozerov told the media that he completely ruled out the version of the attack. The opposite opinion was expressed in "" by an expert of the Academy of Military Sciences Vladimir Prokhvatilov. In his opinion, the plane that took off from the Chkalovsky airfield was lettered - that is, it had a double crew on board.
“Two aircraft are being prepared for such flights at once - one is the main one, the other is a spare. Both planes fly around - they fly in a box for 30 minutes. After that, the recordings of the recorders are handed over for decoding. At the slightest malfunction, the main one is changed to a spare. For the entire period of operation of the Tu-154 at the Chkalovsky airfield, such cases were isolated, without catastrophic consequences. Conclusion: the plane took off from the Chkalovsky airfield in good order.
The crews at the Chkalovsky airfield are experienced, they have hundreds of hours of flights under any weather conditions. They are also trained in emergency situations, as they often carry Department of Defense leadership. The responsibility is high, as is their training. The crew did not inform the Adler airport dispatchers about the malfunctions on board. Therefore, the version - "pilot error" - is very doubtful.
The not-yet-voiced version of the “terrorist attack” takes place, since the refueling took place in the early morning, at a civilian airfield, for which the MO plane was “one of a hundred,” he writes.
Five disasters in 10 years
It is known that this is the fifth plane crash involving the Tu-154 over the past 10 years. Brigades of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation are already working at the site of the tragedy. Specialists found some parts and wreckage of the aircraft. It will take them about a week to deliver all the components of the ship to land.
Rescuers also managed to find and pull out at least 10 dead. Search operations are currently underway. Service boats of the Ministry of Emergency Situations deliver the found bodies to the pier near Cape Vidny.
Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to form and head a state commission to investigate the crash of the Tu-154 plane in Sochi. Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov has been appointed head of the commission.
Currently, more than 100 divers with special equipment have been sent to the crash site.
On this fact, the Investigative Committee of Russia has already opened a criminal case under the article of the Russian Federation "Violation of the rules of flights or preparation for them." A group of investigators with professional experience in investigating air crashes has already set off for Sochi.
I will say right away: the message about non-resistance to terrorists is false. Do not think that if you sit on the sidelines, bearded people in black clothes will not one day knock on your door. They will knock, and they have already knocked. Remember the end of the 90s - the beginning of the 2000s, when all these Khattabs wanted to build their own caliphates in the North Caucasus. The attacks in Volgodonsk and Moscow took place at a time when Russia did not conduct any active military operations there. And it was these explosions that led to the decision to crush the terrorist lair in the Caucasus.
Further. Are France and Germany fighting in Syria? But weren't there terrorist attacks in Nice and Berlin? If during the Chechen operation the bearded men wanted a caliphate from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea, now their appetites are from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. And judging by the fact that some European politicians are already proposing to recognize the "Islamic state *" and establish diplomatic relations with it, the terrorists' dreams of a caliphate are not so fantastic. And therefore it is necessary to wet the terrorists in their lair - in Syria, Iraq. And there is no hope for an international antiterrorist coalition. Nobody except us.
Of course, it is impossible to 100% deny malicious intent in a plane crash over the Black Sea, but the likelihood of a terrorist attack seems close to zero. An irregular flight that took off from a military airfield in Sochi turns out to be early in the morning almost by accident - refueling was supposed to be in Mozdok, but the airport was closed there due to weather conditions. There are many alternatives in those parts: Krasnodar, Stavropol, Minvody, Rostov-on-Don. Apart from military airfields like the same Mozdok. Adler was one on a long list. Therefore, the version of the "act of terrorism for Syria" looks doubly unconvincing - the plane could have ended up anywhere in the North Caucasus.
Of course, as long as the black boxes lie at the bottom of the sea and there are no radar images, all versions of the disaster are guesswork. However, something can be said right away. The weather conditions were close to ideal. The plane, although not new, is little used - these are not commercial airlines, where each side is working for wear and tear.
Crew error? Indeed, most air crashes occur due to the wrong actions of pilots, especially when they are tired and either technical problems or difficult weather conditions are superimposed on this fatigue. However, the crew, most likely, was rested (a short flight from Moscow to Sochi does not count), the plane was in good order, and the weather was excellent. A terrorist attack, as I wrote above, is highly unlikely.
But the plane crashed, and there is another version that is either mentioned in passing or not mentioned at all. This is an overload or misalignment of the aircraft. And such a disaster, moreover, with the aircraft of the Ministry of Defense, has already happened.
On February 7, 1981, at the airfield in Pushkin, Leningrad Region, a Tu-104 belonging to the Pacific Fleet Air Force crashed during takeoff. On board was the entire command of the Pacific Fleet. The investigation showed that the plane was heavily overloaded. Admirals and generals flew from Leningrad with gifts and "opportunities", stacked their heavy suitcases at the tail of the liner. It is clear that no one weighed anything - there is no baggage allowance on military aircraft. In addition, then heavy rolls of paper for the military printing house were loaded onto the plane. During takeoff, they shifted back, as a result, the plane fell on its tail and crashed.
Could something similar happen in Sochi? Theoretically, yes. Almost 100 artists and journalists. We add props, instruments, costumes, television equipment. Elizabeth Glinka, as you know, was carrying medicines for the hospital. How many tons? What other "opportunity" and what New Year's gifts were on this plane, we do not know. But it is unlikely that he flew to the New Year empty.
The question arises: did they fly to Sochi? The pilot knew that refueling was waiting for him, and the liner could take off from Moscow with an incomplete load of fuel. In Adler, they could fill it up to the eyeballs - "so that it's enough back." And this is 40 tons. The result is an overload, takeoff in warm weather, when the engines produce less power, flight over the sea, where there are no updrafts from warm land. And as a result - a lack of traction and a loss of lift.
Too easy? Then let me remind you that in 1981 the tragedy in Pushkin was also first regarded by the leadership of the USSR as a successful sabotage by the United States to eliminate the leadership of the Pacific Fleet. After the disaster, by the way, the fleet was transferred to a state of full combat readiness. But it turned out that NATO had nothing to do with it, and the roll of paper rolled on takeoff was to blame for everything. So here, too, the matter is most likely not in the "Syrian trace" ...
* The organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation
07.01.2017 11:58
I had problems here with posting an article called , one of the sites with which I have recently been collaborating refused to publish.
In the end, on the morning of December 31, the article was sheltered by the freest press in the Russian Federation. Thank them. It's all about who you (I, you, he, she, they) serve: the people or the government.
I serve the people, so the site that serves the authorities could not take the material containing suspicions about the death of the TU-154.
Here are some more wonderful arguments on the topic of the death of the TU-154, from my friend, a military expert, I received them an hour ago:
Mysterious "mechanical effect"
Original 12/31/2016, 09:39
Eduard Limonov about the official version of the Tu-154 crash
“The main phase of work has been completed,” the most responsible persons told us at a press conference, above which only the prime minister and the president of the Russian Federation are already, namely, Lieutenant General Sergey Baynetov, head of the flight safety service of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. And next to him sat the Minister of Transport Maxim Sokolov. It was about work to extract the remains of passengers and pieces of the Tu-154 aircraft, which died on December 25, from the water.
Baynetov listed how many pieces of the aircraft were raised, clarified the number of "black boxes", it turns out there were two of them, said that 19 bodies and over two hundred body fragments were raised to the surface, but made new riddles.
It turns out that the records of the two "black boxes" have not yet been deciphered, but it turns out that there was a short communication between the Tu-154 pilots and air traffic controllers, it lasted only 10 seconds. At the same time, the Tu pilot said "one phrase, it speaks of the beginning of a special situation."
What kind of phrase the lieutenant general did not say. And what a special situation he did not say.
But he suddenly explained the following:
“A terrorist attack is not only an explosion. There may be other reasons as well. In addition to the explosion, there could have been some kind of mechanical impact on board. Not necessarily the attack was associated with an explosion.
Now we are all thinking (and “we all” are the majority of the population of the Russian Federation) what kind of mechanical impact happened on board the TU - 154.
Almost simultaneously with the press conference, it was discovered that the "air base in Chkalovsky" was being disbanded. If it coincided that the air base from where the unfortunate Tu-154 took off is being disbanded right now, then the conclusion suggests itself that the air base is being disbanded as punishment for the death of this aircraft.
I would like to joke awkwardly, they say, were some terrible lizard planted in Tu at the military airfield in Chkalovsk, does everyone remember the movie “Alien”? And the lizard gnawed 73 passengers into 230 pieces.
But in such situations, do not joke. A mournful silence is appropriate here.
Judging by several "tip of the iceberg", and these are:
The ban, introduced the very next day after the death of the Tu-154, all civilian ships, yachts and boats to go to sea. In order to hide from prying eyes what was found (the bodies of passengers with strange injuries?)
Total patrolling by detachments of the national guard of the coast. (For the same purpose: hide incredibly mutilated bodies from prying eyes?)
The disbandment of the air base in Chkalovsky. (For an oversight of introducing something on board the aircraft that could have a “mechanical effect”?).
It becomes clear that the investigators of the death of the TU-154 already know what the matter is.
And, of course, they reported this to the highest officials of the state.
And they hide from us what it is.
And now they are tensely thinking about how they could convincingly lie to us without frightening us.
And what's the matter there?
Variants of what happened:
Either attackers got into the plane - sympathetic suicide bombers of the Caliphate with machetes or axes and chopped everyone to pieces. “Soldiers of the Caliphate” do not necessarily, as we know, act on command from the Caliphate, more often they are volunteers who swore allegiance to the Caliphate from afar.
And the plane was tempting for the "soldiers of the Caliphate." Not only did he fly to Syria, but the Alexandrov military ensemble, a symbol of the Russian army all over the world, flew on it. The military team was supposed to perform at the Russian Khmeimim airbase, a super-attractive goal.
Either (not entirely true "mechanical impact") a certain gas was sprayed on the plane, like the one that was used by our special services with the best intentions in the theater on Dubrovka, where the performance of "Nord-Ost" was going on.
As for the impregnability of the Chkalovsky airport, this is a dubious impregnability. Those who have flown from there in recent years claim that control there was inferior to control at civilian airports.
"Mechanical Impact"!?
Well, don’t torment, tell me what happened on the Tu-154 plane a couple of hours before dawn on December 25, in those 10 seconds that Lieutenant General Baynetov reported.
You already know!
And we have a right to know.
Technical malfunction and pilot error - until recently, remained the main versions of the Tu-154 in the Black Sea. But what could disable the car so quickly that the crew did not even have time to send out a distress signal, for which it is enough to press one button? Spektr collected official and unofficial versions of the possible causes of the disaster, which were announced by the evening of December 26th.
Shortly after the fall of the Tu-154, the Investigative Committee opened a criminal case under article 351 of the Criminal Code (violation of flight rules with grave consequences), but this is a formality necessary for the investigation, and it does not say anything about the possible causes of the disaster. The crew did not inform the ground services about any emergency situations on board, the plane simply disappeared from the radar.
At the same time, as Kommersant newspaper learned, the investigation already has a priority version, according to which the liner fell into the sea due to pilot error. According to experts, whose names the newspaper does not disclose, the pilots climbed too vigorously during takeoff and brought the car to supercritical angles of attack, because of which it lost speed and, instead of climbing, began to descend over the sea, touched the water with its tail and sank.
The version of the terrorist attack, which is the first to suggest itself in such circumstances, the authorities. “Signs and facts indicating the possibility of a terrorist act or sabotage on board an aircraft have not yet been received,” RIA Novosti quotes the FSB message. The main versions are called the ingress of foreign objects into the engine, low-quality fuel, which caused a loss of power and engine failure, pilot error and a technical malfunction of the aircraft. The press service of the department claims that the Tu-154 did not carry any military or dual-use cargo, or pyrotechnics. The plane was only passengers' luggage and 150 kg of food and medicine.
The Ministry of Defense reacted sharply to reports that appeared in the media that some passengers crashed plane were life jackets. The representative of the department, these messages are "shameful insinuations, absolutely untrue."
The head of the flight safety service of the Russian Armed Forces told the TASS news agency that the Tu-154 was technically sound. According to RIA Novosti, the aircraft was produced in 1983, and the last major overhaul was made in December 2014 at the Aviakor plant. Representatives of the authorities were quick to declare that 33 years for an aircraft is a non-critical period. “The assigned resource of this aircraft today is 40 years, and if we take foreign analogues, then some aircraft have a resource of up to 60 years,” said Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.
Meanwhile, according to the Minister of Transport Maxim Sokolov, quoted by Kommersant, "the main versions are: a pilot error or a technical malfunction."
“The testimonies and other objective data obtained during the investigation suggest that the plane could not gain altitude and for some reason, possibly overload and technical malfunction, crashed into the sea,” a source familiar with with the situation.
According to Kommersant, an officer of the coast guard of the border troops of the FSB became an eyewitness to the disaster. The newspaper cites his story with reference to an unnamed source close to the investigation. How, a plane taking off from Adler Airport did not gain altitude, but, on the contrary, began to rapidly decline as if the crew intended to land on water. But, according to an eyewitness, even for landing, the position of the plane was unusual - its nose was too upturned - the border guard compared it to a motorcycle raised on its hind legs. Soon the plane touched the surface with the tail section, while the tail fell off, the plane crashed and immediately went under water.
It was previously known that communication with the aircraft was lost almost immediately after takeoff. The Tu-154 took off at about 5:24, and after 2 minutes and 44 seconds, the controller warned the crew of an oncoming aircraft coming in for a landing. The transporter confirmed the receipt of the command, after which he stopped responding and disappeared from the radar. The publication also reports, citing its sources, that the Tu-154 fell about one and a half kilometers from the coast, and the main part of the wreckage was scattered within a radius of 1.5 kilometers and at a depth of about 70 meters.
However, experts interviewed by Kommersant admit that a technical malfunction could also be the cause of the disaster. For example, an aircraft could deviate from its intended flight path due to out-of-synch flap retraction. Their uniform release is monitored by a special automatic system SPZ-1A, which, in case of mismatch, turns off their hydraulic drive and prompts the pilot to switch to manual control. However, in the event, for example, of a break in the flap drive, the SPZ-1A will not be able to do anything.
Another reason for the deviation from the trajectory and uncontrolled descent could be getting into the so-called flat tailspin, from which it is almost impossible for the Tu-154 to get out. This situation could be provoked, for example, by a jammed Tu-154 stabilizer.
According to the third version of the experts, which is generally similar to the one that the investigation considers as the main one and which is confirmed by the testimony of the only eyewitness, if the Tu-154 climbs too quickly, its three powerful engines are located in the tail section, it may experience problems at high angles of attack : getting into the rarefaction zone that occurs behind the wings, the engines go into abnormal surge mode, and the efficiency of the stabilizer drops. All this together leads to the fact that the car loses speed, lifts its nose and falls into a tailspin.
Similar circumstances led to the death of a Tu-154M aircraft of Rossiya Airlines near Donetsk in 2006, following the Anapa-St. Petersburg flight with 170 passengers on board. The pilots then tried to get out of the storm front, gaining altitude sharply, but their liner fell into a flat tailspin and fell for several minutes before crashing to the ground.
The sources of the newspaper were skeptical about the version of the attack. According to an unnamed security official, Russian planes heading for Syria are being monitored by NATO and its allies. “Even if we wanted to hide the terrorist attack on board, it would have been recorded and immediately made public by our neighbors in the region,” the source explained. According to him, even if there was even a small explosion on board the aircraft, it would fall apart when it hit the water, but the results of the survey of the crash site indicate that the Tu-154 went to the bottom relatively intact.
The British newspaper Independent quotes former air traffic controller Vitaly Andreev as saying that a technical malfunction could not prevent the crew from urgently reporting it. “A number of factors point to some kind of “outside interference,” the article says. The Guardian, in turn, writes that Tu-154 aircraft were widely used in Soviet times, but now they are mostly used by the military.
The FSB named four main working versions of the crash of the Tu-154 of the Ministry of Defense. This is "foreign objects entering the engine, low-quality fuel, which caused a loss of power and failure of the engines, a pilot error, a technical malfunction of the aircraft."
"Signs and facts indicating the possibility of a terrorist act or sabotage on board an aircraft have not been received at the present time," Interfax quotes a message from the FSB Public Relations Center. It was established that there were 150 kg of cargo on board, including food and medicine, but there were no military and dual-use cargo or pyrotechnics among them. It also follows from the report that the landing of the liner in Sochi was unplanned, it was assumed that it would refuel in Mozdok, but there were adverse weather conditions there on Sunday night and the board was redirected to Adler. Upon landing, the aircraft was taken under guard by the military and border guards, during refueling, one officer of the Border Guard Service of the FSB of Russia and one officer of the Sochi customs boarded, and the crew commander and flight engineer got off the plane to control the refueling.
Previously, the version of the attack was called unlikely by both the military and the Ministry of Transport. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday afternoon said that so far “none of the versions are being developed” and the version of the terrorist attack is not in the forefront. The military also rejected the possibility of a malfunction of the aircraft, which, although not new, had a reserve flight resource and underwent several overhauls.
The investigation has established eyewitnesses of the plane crash and is studying the recording of the video recorder, the FSB also said. On Sunday, media reported that surveillance cameras filmed a flash over the Black Sea near the Sochi airport. An Interfax source at the emergency response headquarters said that the outbreak occurred half an hour after the aircraft disappeared from radar screens and was not related to the crash. At headquarters, the recordings of the outbreak were carefully studied, he added. Assumptions that an emergency situation up to an explosion could allegedly have occurred on board, he called premature: “It is necessary to raise the engines to the surface and study their condition. It is also necessary to carefully study the data from the radar and the information stored on the flight recorders. Only after that any objective versions can be built.”
Tu-154 crash of the Ministry of Defense
Earlier it was reported that the Tu-154 did not get in touch when it was at a distance of 6250 m from the end of the airport runway. The hull of the liner was found by divers on Monday afternoon at a distance of 1.7 km from the coast at a depth of 27 m, an Interfax source said. Before that, it was discovered by sonar. According to preliminary data, the aircraft was badly damaged. According to the interlocutor of the agency, a radio beacon was put up at the spot where the aircraft was found, and the zone of the search operation was localized. The black boxes of the aircraft, which, according to Kommersant, were not equipped with radio beacons for reasons of secrecy, were not found at 14.30 Moscow time. In the morning, the Ministry of Defense reported that separate fragments of the aircraft hull, the bodies of 11 people and 154 body fragments were found, the search was hampered by the complex bottom topography and a wide range of depths. According to TASS, the fuselage is located at a distance of 1.5 km in the Black Sea abeam Khosta.
On several dead passengers, but not everyone was wearing life jackets, a source informed about the course of the search operation told RIA Novosti. According to him, this means that people in vests were preparing to evacuate.
The Russian Defense Ministry soon denied rumors about life jackets on the passengers of the crashed Tu-154. “All the rumors, citing anonymous sources, that the passengers of the crashed Tu-154 aircraft were allegedly wearing life jackets are shameful insinuations that are absolutely untrue,” Interfax quoted the ministry as saying.
Investigators seized documents on the fallen Tu-154 at the Samara OJSC Aviakor - Aviation Plant, Interfax was told in the press service of the Russian Machines holding. “Employees of the enterprise who participated in the work on the aircraft provide the investigators with the maximum possible assistance,” the representative of the enterprise assured and explained that the study of technical documentation in such cases is a standard procedure.
The Ministry of Defense previously reported that the dead aircraft was released in 1983, the last repair of the aircraft took place on December 29, 2014, and in September 2016 its scheduled maintenance was carried out. The board belonged to the 223rd flight detachment of the Ministry of Defense, which operates passenger aircraft in the interests of the military department. According to a Vedomosti source close to the Ministry of Defense, the aircraft had a significant - more than half of the assigned - flight resource reserve (the number of takeoffs, landings and flight hours) and a sufficient calendar resource reserve (the period during which operation is permissible). This modification has not been used in civilian airlines for a long time, but the military has a much lower flight time than commercial airlines, he explained.
The aircraft was not overloaded, and there were no serious emergency situations when taxiing to the runway before takeoff, Kommersant writes, citing sources interviewed and fragments of the crew’s conversations with the dispatcher posted on the Internet. 2 minutes 44 seconds after takeoff, the controller informed the crew about an oncoming aircraft that was landing. The transport worker confirmed the receipt of the command, but after a few seconds did not answer the call of the oncoming side, the newspaper writes. After that, the Tu-154 was called on all frequencies, but he did not answer and his mark on the radar screens disappeared.
The pilot flying the Tu-154 said that during this time the crew had to turn off the headlights, remove the landing gear, and also the flaps - first half, up to 15 degrees, and when the speed reached 360 km / h - completely. In the first two minutes, the aircraft had to be transferred from takeoff to flight configuration and continue climbing 1200–1500 m. The interlocutor of the publication considers this stage of takeoff to be relatively calm. Military pilots interviewed by Kommersant do not rule out the possibility of a terrorist attack. But a high-ranking source of the newspaper in law enforcement agencies explained that every Russian plane flying to Syria is being monitored by allies and the military of NATO countries: “Even if we wanted to hide a terrorist attack on board, it would have been recorded and immediately made public by our neighbors in the region” . He added that the plane did not hit the water, but dived, going to the bottom relatively intact, which, according to him, also indicates the absence of external influence. Oil stains did not begin to appear on the surface of the water at the crash site until noon, and luggage and fragments of bodies and plating began to emerge even later, he added, they were carried over a large area by the current.
