The Russian air transport complex is a technologically, organizationally and economically complex structure designed to meet the needs of economic agents for high-quality services for the transportation of goods and passengers. The air transport complex includes airlines and air operators, a network of airports (aerodromes), an air traffic management system, as well as a system for training and retraining personnel for air transport (Figure 3).
Figure 2.1 - Scheme of the structure of the air transport complex
Currently, the Russian air transport complex includes more than 180 commercial airlines and 188 general aviation operators using about 6 thousand aircraft, 350 airfields of various classes and about 650 landing sites. Aircraft maintenance is supported by more than 180 organizations, civil aviation flights are provided by 118 centers
Unified air traffic management system (EU ATM), covering over 500 thousand km of domestic air routes. Personnel training and scientific support for the air transport complex are carried out by 3 higher educational institutions, 12 secondary specialized educational institutions, over 100 training centers, 6 research organizations.
There are over 1,000 organizations operating in the industry, most of which are joint-stock companies.
Air transport accounts for more than 20% of the total passenger turnover in intercity transportation; the contribution of air transport in ensuring international transportation is even more significant: it transports over 80% of passengers in international traffic, or 97% of international passenger turnover.
According to the Federal Aviation Administration, in 2005, out of 1,900 available licenses for regular transportation across the Russian Federation, only 35% were used in the summer, and just over 23% in the winter. The result was an increase in the gap between the passenger turnover of the leaders and other enterprises in the industry, and the combined share of Aeroflot, Siberia, Krasair, Rossiya, Transaero and UTAir airlines in 2005 reached 60% in total passenger turnover and 73% in total revenue.
It should be noted that, largely thanks to the development of industry leaders, since 2001 the Russian air transportation market began to show the first signs of stabilization. Subsequent years were characterized by an increase in passenger turnover of air transport. The growth of the Russian economy and the increase in household incomes are not least reflected in the frequency of air travel. Modern business conditions and the development of tourism infrastructure increase the workload of companies on existing flights and contribute to the development of new routes. On average in the period 2000–2006. Russian airlines annually increased the volume of passenger transportation by 10%, with the annual growth of the country's economy by an average of 6.7%9.
In addition, the growth rate of the Russian air transportation market significantly exceeded the dynamics of the global market. In 2006, passenger turnover of Russian civil aviation increased by 9.6% and reached 93.9 billion pkm. During the year, airlines carried 38 million passengers, which is 8.3% more than in 2005.
The Russian air freight market is developing at a more moderate pace. Over the year, airlines carried only 1.8% more cargo and mail. The low growth rate of the freight market is largely due to the reduction in cargo transportation on domestic routes (-1.8%), while on international routes in 2006 the growth rate was 6%.
The growth in the passenger transportation segment was also mainly due to an increase in work on international routes (+6.6% and 16.3% in passenger traffic). The development of the domestic market was more moderate. However, despite this, the process of increasing competition in the domestic market continues. The growth rates of most leading airlines grew during this period, significantly exceeding the average market rate. Thus, according to the results of 2006, the leading position in terms of growth rates is occupied by Transaero airline - 36%, UTair - 28%, S7 Airlines - 16.4%11.
The positions of leaders on domestic and international airlines have remained unchanged over recent years. The first two lines of the ranking in terms of passenger turnover are occupied by Aeroflot RA and Sibir Airlines. The positions of leaders change by segment. Aeroflot specializes in international routes, where it is far ahead of other Russian airlines in terms of volume of work. In our opinion, we can highlight the main trends in the development of Russian aviation in modern economic conditions.
Contributing to the growth of air travel: global economic growth; growth of income of the population; reduction of the average tariff (in basic prices); increase in the percentage of seat occupancy; increase in labor productivity; the emergence of new, increasingly cost-effective types of aircraft; increasing aircraft utilization; reduction of airlines' unit costs.
Slowing Air Travel Growth: Rising Puel Prices (According to IATA, if oil prices had remained at 2003 levels ($30), global aviation profits would have been $45.6 billion, more than the industry's losses over the last five years years; growth rates of related industries lagging behind the needs of airlines (orders to aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus in 2005, according to experts, will reach 1,900 aircraft, and this number of orders will exceed the record level of 1989 by 25%).
Along with this, it should be taken into account that in addition to the influence of global trends on the development of Russian aviation, internal factors have a significant influence: the aging of the existing domestic aircraft fleet, its low fuel efficiency; crisis in the domestic aircraft industry, lack of supply of new aircraft; the high cost of Western-made aircraft, including high customs duties and VAT on their import; shortage of qualified flight and technical personnel for new Western aircraft, lack of training centers in Russia and the high cost of training abroad; low competition (or lack thereof) in the airport services market; administrative barriers in the international transportation market.
Further, we note that according to IATA research, in emerging markets, the growth in the number of passengers and cargo is approximately twice as high as the growth in GDP. According to world statistics, the frequency of air transport use, which characterizes demand, in stable conditions directly depends on the level of the country’s economy, which, in turn, can be assessed through the level of GDP per capita. In developed countries, with a GDP level of 15–30 thousand dollars per person, the frequency of air transport use is in the range of 0.8–1.6 flights per year per capita. In the USA, Norway and Switzerland, where per capita GDP exceeds $30 thousand, there are from 2 to 3.2 flights per year. In developing countries, depending on the level of GDP and the characteristics of the geographical location, the frequency of flights varies between 0.05–0.5 flights per year. At the same time, the Russian indicator for the country as a whole is close to 0.4, but regionally it ranges from 0 to 0.513.
In the long term, three main scenarios for the development of the Russian market can be considered, which are determined based on the forecast value of GDP and the growth rate of flight frequency.
In accordance with the first option, by 2020 the level of passenger traffic will reach the level recorded in 1990. At the same time, the annual growth rate of passenger turnover will be 6.5%. The second scenario assumes that the growth rate of passenger traffic will be twice the growth rate of Russian GDP. In this case, the annual increase in passenger traffic will be 8.8%, which will ensure an increase in the indicator by 2020 to 124 million passengers.
The third option provides for market growth by 11% annually. Here the assumption is taken as a basis that the growth in passenger traffic intensity will increase to the European level (per inhabitant). In this case, the passenger traffic of Russian carriers will be 168 million passengers.
If there is an increase in the volume of work of large airlines, then their growth will be facilitated not only by overall market growth, but also by a number of structural factors. In particular, the redistribution of passengers from smaller companies. It is obvious that the existence of a large number of airlines in Russia is a temporary phenomenon. Every year, the Russian aviation fleet is aging, and it is not possible for most airlines to modernize it due to low income. Thus, the reduction of air transport operators will continue. Some regional carriers that are of interest to larger airlines will sooner or later be absorbed, while others will simply be squeezed out by growing competition.
In addition, the development of the domestic market will be facilitated by increasing the availability of flights. Thus, starting from 2002, the dynamics of wage growth began to outpace the growth of tariffs, which has a positive effect on demand. Moreover, we note that the lower the tariff/average monthly salary ratio, the more the annual change in passenger turnover will differ from the change in GDP.
In our opinion, for greater clarity of the comparative analysis of the position of airlines on the market, you can select the largest enterprises in the Russian civil air transportation industry - Aeroflot-RAL, Transaero, Krasair, UTair, State Customs Committee Russia (including Pulkovo) and VIM-Avia. These airlines account for about 70% of all air traffic in Russian civil aviation and 35% of cargo traffic.
The listed airlines operate in the passenger air transportation market, but for some of them this is not the only type of activity. Aeroflot is the country's largest cargo carrier and receives compensation payments (“royalties”) from foreign airlines, UTair is the largest helicopter operator in the world, and some airlines receive income from the airport complexes that are part of them. Nevertheless, the main share of income of Russian airlines (about 70%) comes from passenger transportation, and, as data show, regular and charter international flights.
The process of increasing competition in the industry continues, but at the end of 2006, Aeroflot (the leader in international flights) was noticeably ahead of its closest competitors. Traditionally, the first place in passenger turnover for 2006 was taken by Aeroflot with an indicator of 24.324 billion pkm (+8.0%), followed by Transaero (7.792 billion pkm, +47.5%) and UTair (3.666 billion pkm, +23.1%). ) also showed positive growth results, but in absolute terms they were significantly behind the leaders. The remaining companies under consideration showed negative dynamics - the leader of the air union AirUnion Krasair (-0.3%), State Customs Committee Russia together with Pulkovo (-7%) and VIM-Avia (-20.3%)
The growth of Transaero's passenger turnover is largely due to the significant addition to its aircraft fleet. Transaero replenished its fleet with 6 Boeing 747-200 aircraft with 468 seats, which it placed to serve the busiest resort destinations. As a result, it managed to demonstrate the highest growth rates - almost 39% in passenger traffic for the year. At the same time, Transaero has significant potential to increase passenger turnover in the future. As for UTair, the airline's current fleet allows for the possibility of increasing operational efficiency.
It is obvious that by 2012 Russian aircraft will almost completely exhaust their service life, and in conditions when the Tu-154M will be taken out of service, there will be an acute shortage of mainline aircraft. Most Russian airlines have submitted requests to add aircraft of both foreign and Russian origin, but these intentions have not yet been translated into actual contracts. In our opinion, one of the main reasons is the problem of attracting external financing, and in this case, airlines are implementing various strategies, mainly using the placement of bills and bonds, less often lending. At the same time, the capabilities of the domestic aviation industry seem insufficient for the current needs of Russian airlines. As of January 1, 2006, there were 180 air carriers registered in the country, of which less than 20 provide 50% of passenger traffic.
Taking into account the trends of consolidation of industry players, especially in the context of modernization of the aircraft fleet, by 2008–2009. the number of Russian airlines may reach 30. Small companies specializing primarily in one direction will be forced to accept the conditions of larger airlines, but even in these conditions the needs of domestic carriers will not be fully satisfied.
It should be noted that with record high demand for aircraft in the global market, there is an acute shortage of availability of both new and well-maintained secondary aircraft until 2010–2014, and even airlines with sufficient financial resources have not begun negotiations with manufacturers and leasing companies will experience problems with fleet renewal due to the lack of a sufficient number of aircraft on the market.
The main competitive advantage of any airline in the long term is an effectively implemented growth strategy, an increase in the fleet of foreign aircraft and further development of the brand, successful business projects, mergers and alliances, and restructuring programs. In this case, accordingly, the factors of competitiveness may be the following:
An extensive route network, which contributes from an economic point of view to increasing the efficiency of the airline’s fleet operation, and from a service point of view.
Increasing passenger traffic by providing maximum flight opportunities (for example, you can fly from Perm to China through Novosibirsk, and not through Moscow, as was the case before).
Convenient connections, high level of service: the schedule of new flights that airlines should introduce should be selected taking into account optimal connections with other flights that operate from air transport hubs (for example, while waiting for a flight or connecting flight, a passenger can spend time in the airline’s ultra-modern business lounges at modern airports);
Diversification of sales markets through a unique system of hubs.
Creation of modern and comfortable airports with the most efficient transfer technologies, high transport accessibility and the highest growth rates in passenger traffic; the presence of new air carriers (including foreign ones), which creates additional “feeder” traffic.
Upgrading and replenishing the fleet with new Western-made equipment, which increases the level of service, flight safety and reduces the airline’s fuel costs;
A flexible tariff system, aimed at all groups of clients, competitive even in comparison with “low-cost” companies (creating opportunities to always provide our clients with the most favorable tariffs, without reducing the service on board).
The synergistic effect from cooperation with companies that include enterprises providing a full range of aviation work and services: aircraft repair enterprises, logistics, training, tourism.
Obtaining additional income from the expansion of non-sales activities and the development of service infrastructure at airport complexes.
Development of a sales system, including online sales, as well as optimization of the agent network.
A targeted cost optimization policy, including tools to reduce costs for fuel, airport services, distribution, administrative staff, and allowing to maintain and increase the profitability of operations in the face of rising prices and increasing competition.
Using the most modern software and constantly working to increase the transparency of internal processes at various levels: managerial, technical, control.
Involving leading global consultants to develop business plans (for example, Roland Berger, SH&E, Lufthansa Consulting, Ernst&Young).
Ensuring flight safety based on relevant audits, including audits by IATA, FSNST, Boeing and Airbus. At the end of last year, S7 Airlines passed the first stage of the audit in accordance with international safety requirements IOSA (IATA Operational Safety Audit).
Development of an airline brand that is bright and memorable in the exclusively formalized industry of Russian passenger transportation.
The activities of Russian civil aviation (CA) are complicated by a number of negative factors:
- Incompleteness and contradictory results of the restoration growth of the civil engineering industry both in the long-term (starting from the collapse of the USSR) and in the short-term dynamics (crisis of 2015 - 2016). Thus, in 1990, about 100 million people were transported by air to the USSR through the territory of the RSFSR, while in the Federal Republic of the Russian Federation the maximum number of passengers transported was about 93.2 million people. in 2014 (then there was a crisis recession, as a result of which in 2016 Russian airlines transported about 88.6 million people, or 11.4% less than in 1990).
- Stagnating unstable post-crisis stabilization of the country's economy. According to the results of the first half of 2017, GDP growth in the Russian Federation amounted to about 1.7%. In general, for 2017 and beyond, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development forecasts GDP growth at about 2%.
- Continued uncertainty in the development of international transportation markets on both regular and charter (primarily resort) routes. The tense geopolitical situation in the world and the increased threat of terrorist attacks make it almost impossible to predict the closure/opening of air traffic with many currently popular regions of the world.
Currently, the air transport market of the Russian Federation is experiencing active recovery growth: 11 months in a row (from October 2016 to August 2017), despite the reduction in real incomes of the population in 2014 - 2016. and, currently, insignificant rates of positive changes in the state of the economy, the Russian civil aviation demonstrates an impressive growth in air traffic (on average +21.2%, in passenger-km for the period October 2016 - August 2017) - Fig. 1. In the first half of 2017, air traffic growth was achieved at the level of +23% in passenger-km (for international routes +35%, for domestic routes +11%).
If we consider the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators (gross domestic product (GDP), personal income), the development of the international geopolitical situation, i.e. the main factors influencing the formation of demand for air travel, the current state can be characterized as a state of uncertainty - the acute phase of the crisis is over, the Russian economy has apparently adapted to the changed macro conditions, the active part of the population again began to travel more often and use air transport services, but Market participants have not yet shown confidence in stable and significant economic growth. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development forecasts economic growth in the Russian Federation at a level that is obviously incomparable with the rates of recovery growth observed in the Russian Civil Aviation.
The high growth rates of the air transport market are partly due to the low base effect of 2015-2016, when there was an intense decline in traffic in the international airlines segment. This largely explains today's high rates of recovery growth on international flights (post-crisis “rebound”). According to information from tourism market operators, the intensity of orders and bookings from clients flying for tourism and recreation purposes has increased significantly compared to 2016. The summer season of 2017 is marked by high demand for the recently “new” open Turkey and a significantly increased flow of Russians to foreign resorts, which ensures an increase in the production indicators of Russian airlines.
At the same time, the airlines - the leaders of the Russian market, emerging from the crisis in the conditions of rapidly recovering demand, were able to significantly stabilize their financial position, during the period of failure of demand, quickly removing excess capacity from the fleet and then quickly moving on to their growth.
We emphasize that not everyone was able to maintain solvency in the face of dramatic changes in demand, as can be seen from the situation with VIM-Avia, which was let down by the reckless pursuit of rapidly recovering demand: at the beginning of 2016, the airline’s fleet consisted of 10 aircraft (AC) Boeing 757-200 and Airbus A319, by mid-2017 it had grown to 27 aircraft of seven types and modifications of Boeing and Airbus. At the same time, the airline’s management failed to ensure intensive operation of its almost 3-fold larger fleet: the monthly flight time on an average aircraft in the 1st quarter of 2017 decreased to 144 hours (252 hours in the 1st quarter of 2016), in the second quarter of 2017 it amounted to 202 hours ( 313 hours in the second quarter of 2016). At the same time, flight load has deteriorated: in the first half of 2017, the average seat occupancy on domestic airlines (DAL) was 58.8% against 65% in the first half of 2016, similarly on international airlines (INL) the average seat occupancy in the first half of 2017 year was 80.3% compared to 84% in the first half of 2016. This inevitably led to negative financial consequences: without sufficient financial reserves, the airline was unable to stably finance its operating activities already in the third quarter of 2017.
The situation that has arisen requires the introduction of necessary additions to the regulatory framework for regulating the activities of air carriers, in terms of the regulator’s prompt consideration of risk factors for deterioration in their financial condition (clause 96 of FAP-246).
From a situation of a shortage of carrying capacity in the absence of the necessary financial reserves for the rapid expansion of the production program, it is quite easy to fall into a solvency crisis with excessively intensive (not provided with resources) growth of carrying capacity, which is one of the most significant risk factors for Russian airlines today.
Rice. 1. Rate of growth/decrease in passenger turnover of Russian Civil Aviation, monthly, 2015-2016. - August 2017, international flights + domestic flights, in%The intensive recovery growth of the industry in the current situation is largely based on the resumed growth of the aircraft fleet after the end of the devaluation of the national currency (i.e., growth in supply), however, such a situation cannot last long due to the risks noted above. Long-term stable growth of air transportation is possible only in conditions of real growth of the country's economy and the well-being of the population as the final payer for air transport services.
Dynamics of passenger air fares
Tariffs and the cost of airline transportation have an important impact on the economy of airlines and the state of demand for air transportation. To analyze these indicators, we will determine the corresponding indicators of the air transportation market based on statistical data from forms 67-GA and 12-GA for 2011-2016: we will consider the dynamics of the average passenger fare for domestic and international flights against the background of the corresponding inflationary processes - Fig. 2 - 3. From the presented data it follows that Russian airlines, actually forced by the crisis and the dominance of the Aeroflot group into the struggle for “survival”, are forced, especially on domestic flights, to pursue a very conservative pricing policy:
- for 2011 - 2016 the average tariff for domestic airlines (per pass-km) increased by 32.5% (if the state had not reduced the VAT rate for domestic airlines from 18% to 10%, the indicated increase would have been about 42%), while the inflationary rise in prices in the Russian economy during the specified period reached almost 60%;
- over the same period, the average tariff for international airlines (per passenger-km) increased by 66.8%, although the dollar exchange rate over the same period increased by 129%.
The airlines managed to keep the increase in average prices for air passenger transportation, in rubles/passenger-km, to a limited extent (in general, during the period 2011 - 2016, they grew at almost two times lower rates than inflation in the Russian economy), which was facilitated by the successful implementation of earlier modernization of the aircraft fleet.
Similarly, based on the data f. 67-GA and 12-GA for 2011-2016. The dynamics of the average tariff for the transportation of goods and mail on domestic and international routes against the background of corresponding inflationary processes is shown - Fig. 4 - 5. Note that the dynamics of the average tariff for the transportation of cargo and mail is much more closely linked to the dynamics of the level of inflation in the economy and changes in exchange rates than the tariff for passenger transportation, which is due to different pricing strategies of operators in the air passenger and air cargo markets.
Rice. 2. Dynamics of the average tariff per passenger-km on international and domestic routes of the Civil Aviation of the Russian Federation
Rice. 3. Dynamics of the average passenger fare per pass. on international flights and domestic flights of the Civil Aviation of the Russian Federation
Rice. 4. Dynamics of the average tariff per tonne-kilometre of cargo and mail on international and domestic routes of the Civil Aviation of the Russian Federation
Rice. 5. Dynamics of the average tariff for the transportation of 1 ton of cargo and mail on international and domestic routes of the Civil Aviation of the Russian Federation
Operating financial results of the industry air transport complex
With regard to the financial results of airlines in general for civil aviation, according to updated data for 2016, for the first time since 2010, the total financial result turned out to be positive and amounted to about 2.9 billion rubles (Fig. 6 - 8). The positive result was achieved mainly due to the adequate pricing policy of airlines and the 10% VAT rate on domestic flights introduced by the state since mid-2015. At the same time, international airlines consistently ensure operating profit, while domestic airlines have high unprofitability.
Rice. 6. Dynamics of industry financial results of the Civil Aviation of the Russian Federation on international flights + domestic flights
Rice. 7. Dynamics of industry financial results of the Russian Federation Civil Aviation on international flights
Rice. 8. Dynamics of industry financial results of the Civil Aviation of the Russian Federation on domestic air routes
Airline pricing policy
Taking into account the long delay in collecting, processing and disseminating statistical data characterizing the pricing policy of airlines to the aviation community, the industry needs operational tools for “measuring” price information directly from the market, online.
The authors of this article have developed and tested such a methodology for monitoring the pricing policy of airlines in the segment of the 40 largest domestic airlines (domestic airlines) in terms of passenger traffic, as the most massive market segment, collectively accounting for about 65% of domestic Russian commercial air traffic. We outlined in detail about the organization and research methodology of this segment of the air transportation market and the tariff policy of airlines implemented on it on April 17, 2017 in the article.
The results of monitoring the weighted average price (tariff) of economy class transportation on the network of the 40 largest domestic domestic airlines of the Russian Federation (in the format of the unit cost of transportation per passenger-km) for the period 11/30/2016 - 09/21/2017 are shown in Fig. 9. A sample of air ticket prices is made for standard economy class service 2-3 weeks before the planned departure date, tickets are selected without discounts and special offers, promotions, with luggage included in the ticket price; monitoring was carried out for the low-cost airline Pobeda prices of the “Package Plus” tariff (the middle segment in the airline’s tariff line, which includes in the ticket price
Rice. 9. Dynamics of changes in the weighted average price of 1 pass-km in the segment of the 40 largest domestic airlines (economy class)
Notes:
- tariffs for 12/30/2016, 03/29/2017, 04/29/2017, 3/6/10/05/2017 and 06/10/2017. reflect dynamic fare increases during periods of increased demand due to holidays and children's holidays (without taking into account dynamic price increases in the days before departure on lines with high demand)
- the average (in annual terms) fare of a standard economy class (excluding special promotions and special offers, with baggage included in the ticket price) is about 4.31 rubles/pkm (also takes into account dynamic price increases in the days before departure on lines with high demand) ticket 1 piece of baggage in the aircraft cabin up to 10 kg and advance seat selection). The choice of a standard economy class of service was determined by the task of monitoring the dynamics of comparable “average” prices for the most popular segment of air transportation.
The high seasonality of air transportation is one of the factors that reduces the profitability of the air transport business, leading to an excess of carrying capacity and really low prices for air tickets on the verge of profitability, and sometimes beyond it for an acceptable load of excess capacity during periods of low demand. Airlines generate losses during periods of low demand and then cover them through significant (“aggressive”) price increases during periods of peak demand.
Traditionally, there are two main seasons in the aviation business: “low” (autumn-winter) and “high” (spring-summer). Airlines try to respond as quickly as possible to any changes in demand, thereby building the most effective pricing policy. Therefore, regular monitoring of air ticket prices, as well as the volumes of capacity offered by airlines, makes it possible to determine current trends in airline sales in the context of seasonal fluctuations in demand and taking into account the response of carriers to them.
In today's conditions, struggling for survival, airlines use special tools to reduce the influence of seasonality: tariff (income) management and capacity management. As part of the first direction, airlines try to dynamically increase revenues (by setting higher prices) during periods of increasing demand for air travel (“high” season, peak periods - vacations, holidays, approaching departure dates on popular routes). There is a significant gap in air travel demand between the high and low seasons, leading to differences in seat capacity requirements between different seasons. The beginning of the 2017 summer season showed the unpreparedness of a number of airlines to meet the significantly increased demand (primarily in popular tourist destinations), which resulted in many hours of delays due to the lack of a serviceable aircraft fleet. Seasonality presents airlines with a choice: to expand market share in the high season, but receive underutilization of aircraft in the low season, or lose market share in the high season (with aggressive expansion of the fleet and route network by competitors), but at the same time maintain a balance of carrying capacity in the low season.
In total, taking into account the data obtained from monitoring air ticket prices using the method described above, we can distinguish (in aggregate) four main periods, reflecting seasonal fluctuations in demand and, accordingly, seasonal fluctuations in tariffs. Each of these periods has pricing features:
- Between mid-October and the end of April, the air transport market experiences a low demand season. During this period, airlines, in order to stimulate demand and increase load, use a tool to significantly reduce prices, often to a level below cost. During this period, airlines offer passengers air tickets at minimal fares. The weighted average price of 1 pass-km on the largest domestic airlines was about 2.78 rubles in the lower economy class segment. (defined as the average price of 1 passenger-km in economy class for the period from October to April, excluding peak days and holidays, which will be discussed below).
- From mid-May to mid-June, and from mid-September to mid-October, there is a period of moderate demand, when demand for air travel is higher than in the low season, but not yet sufficient for airlines to significantly raise fares. This is the period of the beginning or end of the summer season, the expanded offer of airlines both in the number of destinations and in flight frequencies. During this period, the weighted average price of 1 pass-km in the lower segment of economy class domestic airlines is about 3.62 rubles. Thus, the increase in tariffs here is at the level of +30% compared to the low season.
- The busiest season in terms of flight intensity and flight load is the high season (from mid-June to mid-September). During this holiday period, peak demand is observed in all directions of the 40 largest domestic airlines and, as a result, prices for air tickets increase significantly. The weighted average price of 1 pass-km on the largest domestic airlines in the lower price segment of economy class averages approximately 5.45 rubles. Accordingly, the increase in prices for air tickets in this period is at the level of +96% compared to low season prices.
In addition to the listed periods, it is also worth highlighting peak days of high demand, which are within the holidays, as well as spring and autumn school holidays.
Another tool for increasing the efficiency of airline tariff policies is the so-called dynamic pricing.
In the process of monitoring prices for the largest domestic airlines, in addition to tracking the price level for specific departure dates, the dynamics of air ticket prices was also analyzed in the context of dynamic pricing. To do this, we used a random sample of 30 flights from all flights on the 40 largest domestic airlines, determined the price of a standard economy class ticket two weeks before departure, and then tracked price changes on these 30 specific flights every day until the departure date. The most noticeable increase in prices was observed in the last 3 - 4 days before the departure date (Fig. 10).
Based on the data obtained, we can conclude that dynamic pricing has a serious impact on the average level of air ticket prices in annual terms, increasing them on average (per year) by ~ 13%.
Thus, in general, the pricing policy of Russian airlines can be characterized as a policy of low prices during the low season with “aggressive” measures to compensate for losses incurred during this period during the “high” season, holidays and other peaks of passenger demand.
At the same time, FAS statements appear in the media that global reservation systems (GDS) are the result of a conspiracy among airlines and ensure an economically unjustified increase in air ticket prices, causing harm to consumers. At the same time, for populist reasons, many have long and persistently called for a reduction in prices for air tickets as they approach the departure date, without calculating that, if implemented, this measure will deal a serious blow to the economy of airlines, depriving airlines of interest-free acquisition of working capital in the form of prepayments from passengers, those who purchase cheap air tickets in advance: however, they will purchase tickets closer to departure if they are confident that ticket prices will decrease before departure, rather than increase, as is the case today. As a result, this will lead to an increase in the financial burden on consumers (passengers).
Based on the quantitative results of the study, it can be predicted that the average price level of 1 pass-km for the lower (most popular) segment of the economy class of service in 2017 on the 40 largest domestic airlines (taking into account seasonal price increase factors and the influence of the dynamic pricing factor) will be about 4 .3 rubles/pass-km (including VAT), which is approximately 9% lower than the average tariff for domestic airlines, on average for the entire industry, observed in 2016 (Fig. 2), determined based on the processing of industry statistics.
Fig. 10. Dynamics of price growth (in%) as the departure date approaches with dynamic pricing for the 40 largest domestic airlines
Thus, the proposed mechanism for monitoring current prices for air tickets allows you to quickly monitor changes in the tariff policy of airlines and its seasonal fluctuations, and in the future, after accumulating data obtained using a unified monitoring methodology for years, similar to those presented above in Fig. 9 (now, as you can see, we have been collecting them for less than a year) to estimate with sufficient accuracy the level of tariffs and prices for air tickets in the current period, long before the appearance of industry statistics.
In the article “Test purchase: myths and realities of air ticket prices” published on September 25, 2017, the authors of this article, using a similar approach, conducted a comparative analysis of the pricing policies of airlines operating in the largest regions of the United States and Europe at the end of September 2017. According Based on the data presented in the article, the global average economically justified cost of air transportation is at least 10 cents per passenger-km. or about 5.76 rubles/passenger-km). A similar world average minimum figure for low-cost airlines is about 3.5 - 4.0 rubles. per passenger-km, and for classic network air carriers - approximately 6.3-6.9 rubles. per pass-km.
From a comparison of the price monitoring data presented above for the 40 largest domestic domestic airlines in the Russian Federation in terms of passenger traffic in 2017, as well as the dynamics of industry average passenger tariffs shown in Fig. 2, we can conclude that the price level for air tickets on domestic domestic routes of the Russian Federation are in a range close to the world average prices of low-cost airlines, which is due to the low purchasing power of the Russian population, forcing Russian airlines to move to hybrid business models that synthesize the approaches of “low-cost airlines” and classic network airlines.
Market competition and dominance in the air passenger market
It should be noted that the state of the long-haul air passenger transportation market has changed, which has ceased to be a classic competitive market, but has turned into a market with a dominant player - the Aeroflot group. Further, this trend, after the collapse of VIM-Avia, should undoubtedly intensify.
As of September 2017 (as well as throughout 2017 in general), there is a high concentration in the market of the 40 largest domestic airlines - Fig. 11, with the dominance of the Aeroflot group. In terms of the volume of capacity (seats) offered for transportation per week, the leader (offering about 51% of the total volume of capacity) is the Aeroflot group (including Aeroflot, Russia and Pobeda; Aurora does not operate flights on the 40 largest domestic airlines). The group of large airlines, to which we include the S7 group (including S7 Airlines and Globus), UTair and Ural Airlines, occupies 35.6% of the total capacity in the domestic domestic airline segment under consideration. The remaining smaller airlines operating flights on the 40 largest domestic routes are included in the third group and occupy about 13.5% of the market. The presented data on the market of the 40 largest domestic domestic airlines in terms of passenger traffic (mainline airlines) indicate the undoubted capabilities of the dominant group of airlines to directly influence the general level of prices for air tickets and the tariff policy of their competitors.
In Fig. 12 shows the differences in the offered capacity (seats) per week of airlines operating flights on the 40 largest domestic airlines in February (“low season”) and August (“high season”) 2017.
In Fig. Figure 13 shows the dynamics of the share of carrying capacity (seats) on the 40 largest domestic domestic airlines in terms of passenger traffic for three groups of airlines: the Aeroflot group (Aeroflot, Russia, Pobeda), the group of large airlines (S7 (Siberia, Globus), UTair and Ural Airlines) and the rest - medium and small airlines. The presented data shows how the shares of airlines in the market change depending on the season. The largest airlines operate primarily on regular routes, which partially smooths out seasonal peaks, while smaller air carriers are actively making money on seasonal flight programs, increasing their fleet of aircraft by the beginning of the high season.
Rice. 11. Market share of leading Russian airlines (by the number of seats offered per week 09.18 - 09.24.2017) for the 40 largest domestic airlines
Rice. 12. Differentiation of the number of seats offered by airlines for the 40 largest domestic flights February/August 2017.
Rice. 13. Differentiation of the share of carrying capacity (seats) by airline groups for the 40 largest domestic airlines February/August 2017.
In conditions of market dominance at peak values of demand for air travel, not only prices for air tickets can occasionally “soar”, but in general there may be a shortage of economy class tickets on some routes, for example, in the high summer season on socially significant Far Eastern routes, on of which the dominant carrier provides more than 50% (up to 60 - 80 - or more percent) of the proposed freight capacity, which entails negative social consequences. For example, when monitoring prices on August 15, 2017, two weeks before the planned flight, a lack or shortage (1-2 available seats) of direct economy class tickets on flights from Moscow to the cities of the Far East (Vladivostok, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky) was noted , Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk). With further monitoring of prices for the specified date and the days closest to departure, seats on the specified routes began to appear (however, only 1-2 seats on each flight), which suggests a low level of affordability during this period of direct economy class air tickets to flights from Moscow to major cities of the Far East on the horizon of two to three weeks of booking in the “high” season of August 2017.
In many ways, this situation was a manifestation of the negative consequences of the dominance of the leading player in the market and the lack of competition in some (including those listed above) air transportation routes, when during the low demand season tickets are sold at really low fares, below the actual cost, which closes opportunities for profitable operation on these routes to other airlines, and during periods of high demand leads to a shortage of standard economy class tickets and even their possible absence in the two-week booking horizon. This situation leads to inconvenience for passengers and reduced transport accessibility of the Far East region.
When monitoring prices for air tickets and the amount of carrying capacity offered by airlines in the week 09/18/2017-09/24/2017, it was revealed that on 19 out of 40, i.e. Almost half of the largest domestic airlines, which form almost 30% of the passenger traffic of domestic domestic airlines of the Russian Federation and, accordingly, provide more than 30% of the financial flows of the domestic Russian air transport market in its most intensively loaded stable and profitable segment, are completely dominated by the Aeroflot group, whose share on the routes under consideration by the proposed number of seats per week is:
- 50-65% on 11 directions (routes from Moscow to St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Samara, Kaliningrad, Chelyabinsk, Kazan, Perm, Irkutsk, Nizhnevartovsk, Murmansk, as well as on the St. Petersburg - Sochi overhead line);
- 66-80% on 4 directions (routes from Moscow to Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, as well as from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad);
- more than 80% on 4 directions (routes from Moscow to Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky).
Thus, the dominance of the leading player leads to the monopolization of individual routes (which should be considered as independent market segments), which entails potential threats to the interests of air passengers. In matters of pricing, in the current conditions, the general price level largely depends on the pricing policy of the largest player: taking into account its market share, it has every opportunity to influence the pricing policy of potential competitors. Therefore, it is difficult for airlines that do not have significant government support to penetrate these markets and the long-term prospects for their development while maintaining the existing competitive model of market regulation are negative.
In connection with the above, the relevance of studying the issue of the market and social consequences of the emergence of a dominant player in the market, the advisability of antimonopoly regulation both in the industry as a whole and in individual socially significant areas (segments) of air transportation, as well as on rational mechanisms for such regulation, is clear.
It is proposed to consider the possibility of categorizing the network of regular air routes in the Russian Federation into groups according to the degree of intensity of competition, depending on the intensity of passenger traffic and the level (in %) of dominance of certain air carriers (air carrier groups), for example:
Group I - long-distance air routes with high traffic intensity;
Group II - air routes of medium and low intensity traffic;
Group III - operating low-intensity air routes of high social significance (in hard-to-reach regions).
In group I of routes, the regulator ensures control over the presence and intensity of competition and, if dominance is detected, introduces certain control and regulatory functions and mechanisms of price and other (through flight frequencies) regulation. On lines with the most intense passenger traffic, competitive admission to air transportation may be introduced with conditions (obligations) for the frequencies performed and obligations to operate (or co-finance) regional routes with low demand intensity (a compensatory admission mechanism associated with obligations in the field of development of regional transportation - similar to American model of mutually beneficial interaction between mainline (largest) and regional airlines).
In the second group of air routes, priority is given to mechanisms for stimulating the “rolling out” of flights bypassing Moscow, with “zeroing” of VAT on these routes and free access for air carriers to the routes, which creates a highly competitive environment on the routes.
The third group of routes mainly contains transportation of high social significance, with a high share of budget subsidies distributed on a competitive basis, and the absence (decrease) of competition on the routes.
The development of the above proposals is aimed at increasing the efficiency of the air transport market in the context of the emergence of a dominant group of airlines, protecting the interests of consumers in the conditions of market monopolization trends and preserving elements of market competition, taking into account its reasonable differentiation by market segments.
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Russian civil aviation showed almost no growth in 2015 (a sharp jump in Simferopol, stabilization of the Moscow air hub, subsidence of regional airports), but the world aviation as a whole showed growth.
At the same time, cargo aviation, unlike passenger aviation, is experiencing problems and declining profits (they carry less cargo) - a situation similar to global ship traffic last year. I recently wrote about in South Korea - the connection with the general decline in transport activity is obvious.
Below are excerpts from an article on Gudke.ru on this topic.
Airline passenger turnover around the world grew by a record 6.5% since 2010, while tickets became cheaper by 5%, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports in its 2015 results report.
According to the IATA report, traffic growth in 2015 was recorded in all markets. The airlines' total carrying capacity increased by 5.6% in 2015. At the same time, the efficiency of aircraft use on average per year has become higher. Salon occupancy rates rose 0.6 percentage points to a record annual high of 80.3%.
On international routes, total passenger traffic increased by 6.5%. There was an increase in capacity by 5.9%, and their load factor increased by 0.5 percentage points to 79.7%. To assess international passenger traffic, IATA groups carriers by major regions: Europe, Africa, North America, Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East.
One third of the total annual traffic growth in this traffic segment was provided by the Asia-Pacific region, where traffic increased by 8.2% compared to 2014. “Demand was stimulated by an increase in the number of connections at airports in the region by 7.3%,” note the association’s experts.
A significant jump in passenger traffic was recorded in the Middle East - 10.5%. As a result, the share of international traffic accounted for by Middle Eastern airlines reached 14.2%.
International traffic of European carriers increased by 5% in 2015. Capacity increased by 3.8%, and load factor increased by one percentage point to 82.6%, the highest among all regions.
IATA attributes this growth to increased consumer spending in the eurozone and a moderate increase in flight frequencies. The report draws attention to the fact that by the end of the year, the growth of passenger traffic slowed down due to problems with Lufthansa and the suspension of flights by the Russian airline Transaero since October. For example, in October, passenger turnover of European carriers increased by 7.1%; in November, the growth rate slowed down: passenger turnover grew by 5.9%.
At the end of 2015, North American airlines' passenger traffic increased by 3.2%, maintaining last year's pace. Traffic for South American airlines increased by 9.3% in 2015. African airlines had the slowest annual growth in international traffic at 3%, but the figure was a significant improvement on the 0.9% annual growth in 2014.
Passenger traffic within one country in 2015 grew by an average of 6.3% worldwide. Domestic lines are proving to be most important for a number of countries and regions. It is a critical sector for the US and Latin America. At the same time, in Europe and the African continent, domestic flights account for about 10% of traffic.
The capacity of aircraft on domestic routes increased by 5.2%, the load factor was 81.5%, up 0.9 percentage points compared to 2014. All regions showed an increase in domestic flights. At the same time, the indicator had the greatest, albeit mixed, impact from China, where traffic growth was 8.2%, and Brazil, which lost 4.0% of passenger traffic over the year.
In the US, domestic traffic increased by 4.9%, the highest since 2004. In addition, for the first time since 2003, domestic traffic growth in the United States was higher than international traffic growth. IATA attributes the records to the solid growth of the American economy during the year. Aircraft load factor on domestic routes reached a record high for this segment of 85.4%.
The decline in air ticket prices is associated with a decline in oil prices and, as a consequence, in aviation fuel. But according to IATA chief economist Brian Pearce, as quoted by The Wall Street Journal, the main effect of the current drop in airfare prices will hit the market in 2017. "Many European and Asian carriers have started to financialize fuel costs so early that they will not see the full benefit of lower oil prices for several months or longer. This means that the benefit of today's low oil prices should arrive next year,” said Brian Pearce on the eve of the publication of IATA reports.
In addition, thanks to low fuel prices, not only are ticket prices falling, but also revenues in the air transportation segment are growing, followed by business capitalization. Based on the results of the nine months of last year, shares of all airlines rose in price by 9% in October.
IATA emphasizes that civil aviation made a significant contribution to the global economy last year. Against this background, the organization's experts are disappointed "that some governments mistakenly believe that the value of taxes and fees that can be extracted from air travel is more important than the economic benefits and the value of social connections." The report cites Italy as an example, where a sharp 33-38% increase in the departure tax, according to IATA experts, will hit the country's competitiveness, reduce the number of passengers by more than 755 thousand people per year and cost the loss of 2,300 jobs. “At a time when the global economy is showing signs of weakening, governments must look for ways to stimulate spending without impeding its development,” the organization’s report says.
In the cargo transportation market, as Gudok.ru reported, according to IATA estimates, things are worse: the annual income of cargo airlines is unlikely to reach $51 billion compared to $67 billion in 2014.
Passengers began to fly more often
According to the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviation), in January–December 2017, Russian airlines carried 105.1 million passengers, which is 18.6% more than in the same period last year. Passenger turnover of Russian airlines in 2017 increased by 20.3%. Note that passenger turnover increased by 20.3%. The main dynamics were demonstrated by the international direction. The volume of transportation abroad increased by 32.1% and amounted to 42.5 million people. In domestic traffic, 62.6 million people used airline services, which is 10.9% higher than last year.
If we talk about major players, it can be noted that the top 5 Russian airlines increased the volume of passenger transportation by 16% in 2017. Aeroflot traditionally accounts for the largest volume of traffic. Last year, the airline transported 32.9 million passengers, which is 13.3% higher than last year. The highest growth rates in passenger traffic are demonstrated by Aeroflot's subsidiary, Rossiya Airlines, which ranks second in the top 5 largest Russian air carriers. In 2017, 11.2 million people used its services, which is 37.7% more than in the same period in 2016. It should be noted that Ural Airlines, which is in fourth place in the rating, also significantly increased the volume of passenger transportation, up to 8 million people (+23.7% compared to 2016). Siberia Airlines took third place with 10 million passengers. The growth rate compared to last year was 4.6%. And the top 5 is completed by UTair, which transported 7.3 million people, which is 9.7% higher than last year.
At the end of the year, charter carriers demonstrate the highest growth rates in passenger traffic. Thus, the highest dynamics based on the results of work in 2017 and the highest growth in passenger traffic were demonstrated by the North Wind airline - an increase of 98.4% compared to the same period last year, to 3.5 million people. Other charter carriers also increased passenger turnover over the past year. Thus, Red Wings increased by 75.5%, transporting 1.6 million people during the specified period, and AZUR air showed an increase of 59.9% by transporting 3.7 million passengers. Also, high results for 2017 are shown by Royal Flight and Icarus: 50.8 and 39.8%, respectively. At the same time, AZUR air and Royal Flight have the highest percentage of passenger seats occupied - 96.6 and 93.4%, respectively.
In addition, over the past year, the process of occupancy of passenger seats for all Russian airlines increased by 2.1%. As a result, this figure was 83.2%.
Loads are pulled into the sky
According to data from the Federal Air Transport Agency, over the past year the volume of cargo and mail transportation increased by 15.7% and amounted to 1.13 million tons. The bulk of cargo and mail in 2017 was sent internationally. Over the past year, this figure increased by 19.5% compared to the same indicator in 2016 and amounted to 842.6 thousand tons. The volume of domestic traffic also increased by 6.1% and amounted to 288.1 thousand tons. Top -5 of the largest Russian airlines increased the volume of cargo and mail transportation by 17.1% in 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. The largest volume was transported by AirBridgeCargo, which ranks first in the top 5 - 565.5 thousand tons of cargo and mail, transporting 12.8% more goods than in 2016. The highest growth rate of indicators is demonstrated by “Russia”, which closes the rating. The air carrier increased the volume of cargo and mail transportation by 52.8% compared to last year. This is 32.8 thousand tons of cargo and mail. Aeroflot is in second place in terms of traffic volume with a result of 226.6 thousand tons at the end of the year, which is 29.1% higher than the level of 2016.
The remaining players transport not such large volumes, and if Rossiya continues to increase its performance at the same pace, it may well displace Volga-Dnepr and Sibir this year. Moreover, Siberia, which occupies fourth position, at the end of the year reduced the volume of cargo and mail transportation by 0.3%, to 34.8 thousand tons. Volga-Dnepr Airlines, which is in third place in the top 5 largest air carriers, transported 37.6 thousand tons during the specified period, which is 14.4% more than in the same period last year. In general, the top 5 air carriers delivered 897.3 thousand tons of cargo in 2017.
Since the beginning of 2017, UTair airlines have reduced the volume of cargo and mail transportation by 2.9% compared to the same period last year. During January – November 2017, it delivered 21 thousand tons of cargo and mail. Negative dynamics have been observed since the beginning of the year. This has led to the fact that the air carrier is no longer in the top 5 largest airlines in Russia and is already in seventh position.
As a result, over the past year, the percentage of commercial load of all Russian air carriers increased by 1.3% and amounted to 69%.
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480 rub. | 150 UAH | $7.5 ", MOUSEOFF, FGCOLOR, "#FFFFCC",BGCOLOR, "#393939");" onMouseOut="return nd();"> Dissertation - 480 RUR, delivery 10 minutes, around the clock, seven days a week and holidays
Gurieva, Madina Taimurazovna. Modern trends in the development of the global air cargo market: dissertation... Candidate of Economic Sciences: 08.00.14 / Gurieva Madina Taimurazovna; [Place of protection: Moscow. state int. int. relations] - Moscow, 2010. - 194 p.: ill. RSL OD, 61 11-8/110
Introduction
Chapter 1. Theoretical and methodological features of the analysis of the global air cargo market 11
1.1. The essence of transport services and the place of air cargo transport in them 11
1.2. The main factors influencing the state of supply and demand in the global air cargo market in modern conditions 27
1.3. Commodity and geographical structure of the global air cargo market 42
Chapter 2. Organizational aspects of improving the functioning of the global air cargo market 55
2.1. Features and prospects for the formation and modernization of the cargo aircraft fleet 55
2.2. Modern trends in optimizing the air cargo transportation process in the world 70
2.3. Improving the functioning of the global air cargo market based on innovation 81
Chapter 3. Prospects for expanding the activities of Russian companies in the global air cargo market 100
3.1. Analysis of the current state of air cargo transportation in Russia 100
3.2. Ways to increase the competitiveness of Russian cargo carriers in the global market 122
3.3. Innovative approaches to expanding the export of air cargo transport services in Russia 134
Conclusion 149
Bibliography
Introduction to the work
Relevance of the topic . In modern conditions of development of the world economy, the importance of international cargo transportation is constantly increasing to ensure the smooth functioning of international trade in goods, as well as the supply of modern production and distribution systems. Air transport is one of the most dynamically developing modes of transport, whose importance is growing as the share of finished and expensive products in the structure of world trade increases. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the share of air transport in the total volume of cargo transported in the world is 0.6%-2%, while at the same time the share of cargo transported by air in value terms reaches 35-40%.
The relevance of the research topic is due to the need to expand the activities of Russian airlines in the global cargo transportation market, identify their potential in this market through a comprehensive study of current trends in its development and determine the main factors determining the competitiveness of airlines.
The current situation in the air cargo transportation market is characterized by a significant reduction in the volume of transported cargo, which is associated with the global economic crisis, as well as a number of factors that negatively affect the dynamics of demand for air transportation. Among these factors, we can note increased competition from other modes of transport (especially maritime), instability of fuel prices, and increasingly stringent environmental requirements. In such conditions, it is important for cargo carriers to strive for maximum cost reduction and build a development strategy taking into account the specifics of the modern situation. Of particular importance at the moment are organizational innovations, new forms of cooperation and organization of the transportation process, the introduction of the latest achievements in the field of information technology to optimize the process of delivering goods during air transportation and satisfying customer needs while reducing costs.
The particular relevance of this topic for the Russian economy is due to the fact that the share of Russian cargo carriers in the dynamically developing global aviation market is very small and does not correspond to the country’s potential, due to its geographical location, level of development and the presence of its own aircraft manufacturing complex. The “Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030” notes that the geographical features of Russia determine the priority role of transport in the development of the country’s competitive advantages in terms of realizing its transit potential, and today’s volume and quality characteristics of transport, especially its infrastructure, do not allow efficient meet the challenges of a growing economy. All of the above fully applies to air cargo transport.
The degree of development of the topic in the scientific literature. The problems of the functioning of the global aviation market are quite widely considered in Russian and foreign economic literature, including in the works of such well-known domestic and foreign scientists as B.V. Artamonov, V.G. Afanasyev, V.D. Bordunov, E.V. Kostromina, K. Button, G. Butler, R. Doganis, N. Evans and others. However, the specifics of the modern development of the global air freight market, the issues of creating competitive advantages of Russian and foreign airlines directly in this market remain problems that are not sufficiently covered in scientific research, which also determines the relevance of this study.
Purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of this study is to identify current trends in the development of the global air cargo market and opportunities for expanding the activities of Russian companies in this market.
Such a definition of a goal involves setting a number of specific tasks, the sequential solution of which determines the structure of the study, namely:
identification and study of the theoretical features of the formation of the modern world air cargo market, the conditions for its functioning and the main factors influencing the trends and dynamics of the development of this market;
analysis of the features and prospects for the development of the air fleet used for cargo transportation on the world market, and their relationship with the competitiveness of cargo carriers;
research into trends in optimizing the functioning of the global air cargo market, including the introduction of elements of a business simplification system into the practice of cargo airlines;
identification and analysis of organizational innovations in the field of air cargo transportation, including comparison of the advantages of various business models and their impact on the competitiveness of carriers in the global market;
analysis of the current state and prospects of the air cargo transportation industry in the Russian Federation, as well as identifying the most effective areas for increasing the competitiveness of cargo carriers and developing proposals for their implementation in the activities of Russian airlines;
formation of innovative directions for increasing the export of air cargo transport services in Russia.
When solving the above problems, special attention is paid to the practical experience of foreign airlines and international organizations in this area, as well as the possibilities of its use by Russian market participants.
Object of study within the framework of the dissertation, the global air cargo market in its current state is presented as a promising direction for the development of the activities of Russian cargo carriers.
Subject of research of this dissertation are current trends in the development of the global air cargo market and factors influencing the competitiveness of companies in it.
Chronological framework of the study. The dissertation examines the development of the global air cargo market at the end of the 20th – beginning of the 21st century. The period from 1978 (the moment of liberalization of the aviation services market in the USA) to the present is analyzed. During this period, significant changes occurred in the global market for cargo and mail transportation, both in the volume and growth rate of traffic, and in the relative importance of the main factors determining the competitiveness of airlines in the global air cargo market.
Theoretical and methodological bases. The development of the chosen topic was based on the study of articles and monographs by Russian and foreign scientists and specialists in the field of international transportation, logistics and aviation business: B.A. Anikina, B.V. Artamonova, V.G. Afanasyeva, V.D. Bordunova, A.M. Gadzhinsky, V.S. Gryaznova, V.V. Dybskoy, E.V. Kostromina, L.B. Mirotina, V.M. Nazarenko, Yu. M. Nerusha, V.S. Nikiforova, D.S. Nikolaeva, V.A. Persianova, K.I. Pluzhnikova, S.V. Sarkisova, A.A. Friedland, K. Button, G. Butler, R. Doganis, M. Christopher, N. Evans and others.
The methodological basis of the study was the works of domestic and foreign scientists devoted to the processes of globalization in international economic relations, the theory of international competitiveness, international trade in services: E.F. Avdokushina, V.D. Andrianova, O.T. Bogomolova, A.S. Bulatova, A.A. Dynkina, V.K. Lomakina, N.N. Liventsev, M. Porter, A.A. Thompson, A. J. Strickland and others.
The information base of the study consisted of regulatory, analytical and statistical materials of the Government of the Russian Federation, the Federal Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Federal Air Transport Agency, the Federal Service for Supervision of Transport, Russian and foreign specialized reference publications, materials of special reports and thematic reviews. The work uses monographs and scientific and analytical works of scientists specializing in transport issues, especially aviation, materials from Russian and foreign periodicals, research from research centers and institutes of the aircraft industry, publications, reviews and reports of the World Trade Organization, the International Air Transport Association , International Civil Aviation Organization and other international organizations, Internet materials.
For the purposes of this study, statistical data and publications of Russian research institutes, reports and reports of scientific and practical conferences, materials of Russian and foreign publications on issues of competitiveness in the international aviation market, annual reports and corporate materials of airlines and civil aircraft manufacturers, as well as expert assessments of leading aviation industry specialists. The work also examined analytical reviews and ratings compiled by the Financial Times and Expert PA agencies.
Scientific novelty. In the process of research in the dissertation work, the author obtained the following theoretical and practical results that determine scientific novelty:
The essence and role of transport services in ensuring the continuity of the reproduction process in modern conditions, as well as the growing importance of air cargo transport in the world economy in the context of globalization, are revealed. Based on the analysis of the composition and qualitative content of factors influencing the dynamics of supply and demand in the global air cargo market at the present stage, the factors that currently have the most significant impact are identified: fluctuations in fuel prices; tightening requirements related to environmental protection and flight safety; as well as modern trends in international trade and the introduction of the latest types of production organization and inventory management systems, in realizing the benefits of which air transport can play a decisive role.
The features and prospects for the formation of a cargo aircraft fleet in the context of globalization have been established. At the same time, the specifics of changes in the structure of the cargo air fleet were revealed, including a significant increase in the share of the latest wide-body aircraft, which are most consistent with the geographical and quantitative distribution of cargo flows at the present time, as well as their qualitative composition.
As a result of a study of the organizational aspects of the functioning of the global air cargo market, significant opportunities for their improvement were identified, including a significant reduction in the costs of cargo carriers associated with the prospect of introducing elements of a business simplification system. It has been established that to use this system in Russia, it is necessary to implement a set of measures aimed at both introducing technological innovations and improving the legislative framework, in particular, by joining the Montreal Convention of 1999, as well as introducing a program for electronic customs declaration of goods.
It has been determined that the current state of the industry involves the active use of innovations in the activities of companies, while at this stage organizational innovations become especially important, allowing to optimize the processes of introducing new methods of distribution and sales, entering new markets, and introducing new business models. It is substantiated that, in relation to the industry under consideration, the most relevant innovations are the following: the emergence and development of such a form of cargo transportation as express transportation; formation of strategic alliances in the cargo market; the activities of leasing companies on a new integrated basis, allowing carriers to expand their presence in markets, including those subject to seasonal fluctuations, without significant investment in equipment and the cost of additional personnel.
It has been established that Russian participants in the air cargo market, despite the significant potential of the industry, do not play a comparable significant role in the global market. Proposals have been formulated to introduce a number of measures into the activities of Russian air cargo carriers aimed at increasing their competitiveness in the world market, including the introduction of an international logistics approach to the provision of services as part of the proposed set of measures to increase profitability; horizontal and/or vertical integration; actions aimed at overcoming imbalances in the most important areas, and others.
The current relevance of state support for the aviation industry is substantiated, especially in the form of providing civil ship manufacturers with access to technologies and developments that were originally created for military purposes and financed by the state, and a set of government policy measures is proposed aimed at expanding the export of air cargo transport services in Russia, in including the removal of duties on imported aircraft, the analogues of which are not produced in Russia, promoting the widespread implementation of international standards and safety audit mechanisms, electronic technologies, stimulating the development of competition in potentially competitive areas of airport activity, and others.
Practical significance. The main provisions and results of the dissertation were used by the author for scientific, educational and practical purposes and were reflected in published works.
The research results, main provisions, conclusions and recommendations of the dissertation can be used at different levels of management of Russian airlines, and can also serve as the basis for further practical developments in the field of increasing the competitiveness of the Russian air cargo industry.
The results of the study may be in demand by ministries and departments in the field of transport and foreign economic activity, and, above all, by the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, and will also be useful when studying relevant issues in IMEMO RAS, JSC "VNIKI" and analytical centers of the aviation industry.
In addition, the practical significance of the study is due to the possibility of using the materials and conclusions of the dissertation by scientific and educational institutions of economics in the preparation of lecture courses and practical classes in the disciplines “International transport operations and logistics”, “Commercial logistics”, “International commercial business”, “Trade in services” ", "Transport management", "Freight forwarding operations".
Approbation of the results of the dissertation research. The main theoretical conclusions and provisions of the dissertation, as well as a number of practical proposals, were tested in the following forms: the author published 6 works on the topic of the dissertation with a total volume of 3.0 pp. (including auto 2.8 p.l.)
The main theoretical principles and practical conclusions of the dissertation were also tested by the applicant at the IV International Logistics Forum “Logistics. Product distribution. Supply" (ITKOR Institute, Moscow, October 26-29, 2009) and the seminar-conference "Logistics of production and trade organizations" (ITKOR Institute, Moscow, April 7, 2010).
The analytical materials of the dissertation and the author's expert proposals, based on the conclusions made during the preparation of this work, were used in the work of the Atlant-Soyuz airline when making management decisions.
The dissertation materials were also used when delivering lectures and conducting seminars on the courses “Fundamentals of Logistics”, “International Economic Relations” at the Faculty of International Economic Relations of MGIMO (U) MFA of Russia, “International Transport Operations and Logistics” at the Faculty of MBDA MGIMO (U) MFA of Russia, “ Transport support for foreign economic activity" IVES MGIMO (U) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.
The main factors influencing the state of supply and demand in the global air cargo market in modern conditions
The globalization of the economy and the accompanying processes of development of foreign trade exchange have significantly changed the volume and structure of the air cargo market and increased the requirements for the efficiency of the functioning of transport systems. The changes that have occurred in air cargo and express delivery services, which play an important role in the functioning of the international economy, provide an example of how transport can enhance globalization processes. Moreover, as a result of these processes, increasing the competitiveness of national transport service providers in world markets and the growth of their exports are becoming as important a component of the country’s national product as the export of goods.
It should be noted that air cargo carriers, as well as other companies providing transport services, are constantly in a rather difficult, somewhat ambiguous position due to the specifics of the transport service itself. At different periods of time, two different approaches to defining the essence of transport were common. Among Soviet scientists there was a very widespread concept according to which transport (or at least freight transport) is not a service sector, but a fourth sphere of material production, the result of which is transport products. According to K. Marx’s definition, “besides the mining industry, agriculture and manufacturing industry, there is a fourth sphere of material production... This is the transport industry, no matter whether it transports people or goods.” According to D.S. Nikolaev, although transport products (that is, the transportation process carried out by vehicles) do not have a material form, unlike other sectors of the national economy, they are nevertheless material in nature. Among the supporters of this concept, it was believed that this was confirmed by the fact that in the process of movement, material resources are spent, rolling stock wears out, the labor of transport workers is used, etc. .
For the purposes of this work, we prefer the modern definition of transport as a service sector, reflected, for example, in the classification of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and the works of leading Russian specialists in the field of transport and international economic relations.
Transport is a service sector that transports passengers and goods along communication routes. This movement, produced and consumed simultaneously, has its own value and, as a specific service, has its own market price. The cost of a transport service increases the price of the product that existed before its movement, although its material form remains unchanged during transportation.
Regardless of whether transport is considered as a sphere of material production or as a service sector, the extremely important role of transport in the process of social reproduction is undeniable. When a product moves from the place of production to the point of consumption, in a certain sense, “the process of production of the product within the sphere of circulation” continues. Without the participation of transport, goods cannot be consumed, and the process of national economic circulation is completed. Thus, the importance of transport for social reproduction is obvious.
The specificity of transport is that since the material form of the goods remains unchanged during transportation, the owner of the goods is interested in ensuring that the price of movement is minimal to maintain an acceptable share of the transport component in the price of the product at the point of consumption, and the delivery process itself is as fast as possible (after all, while the goods are in transit, the funds invested in them do not participate in the turnover) and safe (bearing in mind the immutability of the goods during its transportation).
Satisfying these needs for a transport enterprise means higher labor and capital costs, and, accordingly, higher transportation costs, because the manufacturer of a transport service is interested in a price for its “product” that would not only cover its costs, but would also make the transport business profitable .
Therefore, the entire course of development of scientific and technological progress in transport is determined, on the one hand, by the need to satisfy society’s needs for the movement of goods and people, ensuring high speeds and safety of goods and people along the route, and on the other hand, by the growing importance of maximizing cost reduction. However, the combination of these requirements for transport with the need to take into account other interests of society, such as, for example, environmental protection and compliance with safety standards when providing this service, is becoming increasingly important. From the author’s point of view, it is the air transportation sector that is able to most effectively ensure the fulfillment of the specified requirements for the transportation process, since it is air transport that is characterized by the highest delivery speed and degree of safety of cargo in transit. The development of this sector is necessary to ensure the country’s foreign trade relations and directly affects the competitiveness of the economy in the world economy.
A special feature of the transport services market is also that it has the features of a monopoly market, where the action of market relations is objectively limited by a number of factors. Firstly, transport is traditionally considered as a strategically important sector of the economy, ensuring the development and strengthening of the national state community of people.
Secondly, transport services make a great contribution to ensuring a unified set of vital conditions throughout the country,
Thirdly, transport (depending on the specific type) requires large capital investments for construction and operation, as well as costs associated with land management.
Fourthly, enterprises in service sectors dominated by a natural monopoly may belong to the non-state sector and are subject to legislation restricting free market competition. Although transport services are predominantly so-called regulated services, the degree of strictness of their regulation varies. There are many exceptions to the legislation restricting free competition and private entrepreneurship in the service sector with the dominance of a natural monopoly. At the same time, in the practice of economic activity of the transport industries, there are the following methods of state regulation: control and licensing of the entry of a new company into the services market, the right of its existence, up to the termination of the activities of the company as a whole and its individual operations;
Commodity and geographical structure of the global air cargo market
In July 2008, the price of crude oil reached $147 per barrel, and jet fuel reached a record high of $180 per barrel. The subsequent fall in oil prices on the world market has not yet significantly improved the situation of air carriers for the following reasons: firstly, prices for aviation fuel are falling much more slowly and the so-called crack spread (oil-petroleum product spread) has increased from 25% to 45 %; secondly, the rise in the dollar exchange rate somewhat offset the benefits for non-American airlines - at the end of 2008, “spot” prices for jet fuel in the United States were 57% lower than in July, while in Europe prices in euros decreased only by 48 %; Third, the hedging that virtually all airlines used when oil prices rose did them a disservice when prices fell. Thus, when making forecasts for 2009, IATA specialists assumed a price of 100-110 dollars per barrel of crude oil (in December 2008, the forecasts were revised to 60 dollars per barrel). On its own, a $40 per barrel price cut could reduce airline fuel costs by more than $60 billion per year, but the effect of hedging was rather negative for airlines in the fourth quarter of 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the real price of fuel for airlines fell by only $17 per barrel, and numerous measures taken by carriers to reduce fuel consumption remained relevant. Fourthly, the renewed rise in oil prices forces us to reconsider all forecasts - already in June 2009, the price of oil was 75% higher than the lowest point reached at the end of 2008. Although the crack spread has dropped to 15% due to underutilization of refining capacity, the price of jet fuel reached approximately $80 per barrel in the fall of 2009, bringing the airline industry's total fuel spending in 2009 to an estimated $106 billion above the projected $106 billion. also that the average age of cargo ships is significantly higher than passenger ships (25 and 13 years, respectively), so fuel saving measures here are still less effective. The issue of fuel economy is also very important from the point of view of environmental friendliness of air travel. In general, the main problems of air transportation related to environmental protection include the problem of noise levels during takeoff and landing at airports and adjacent areas and the problem of emission (release) of harmful substances (local, that is, polluting the areas adjacent to airports and negatively affecting the health of people living nearby, and global, that is, associated with an increase in the so-called “greenhouse effect”).
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the transport sector accounts for about 13% of greenhouse gas emissions, with aviation accounting for about 2%. We are talking primarily about emissions of a substance such as carbon dioxide (CCb), which is directly related to fuel consumption. The International Air Transport Association is taking a number of measures to reduce harmful emissions. These measures include the use of more direct (i.e. short) routes, the introduction of the most efficient methods of operating vessels, saving time in transit and during maneuvers: the use of more direct (i.e. short) routes: according to ICAO, only in 2005, work to implement appropriate changes on approximately 300 routes reduced CO2 emissions by 6.1 million tons and saved $1.2 billion; the introduction of the most efficient methods of ship operation led to a reduction in emissions by 4.3 million tons and savings of $800 million in 2005); savings in travel time and during maneuvers have already saved 2.5 million minutes of flight time, which burns an average of 49 kg of fuel per minute; as a result, there was a reduction in harmful emissions by 1.5 million tons, and savings of $300 million were achieved). Increased noise levels are another important factor causing negative public attitudes towards the operation and expansion of airports, both in developed and developing countries. In fact, the noise level emanating from aircraft during takeoff and landing at a particular airport depends on a number of factors, including the type of aircraft, the total number of takeoffs and landings per day, general operating conditions, the time of day at which takeoffs and landings take place , type of runway, weather conditions and a number of other factors. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has been taking numerous measures to reduce noise levels since the 1960s. It should be noted that aircraft coming off the production line today are approximately 75% less noisy than they were 40 years ago.
The main innovative developments in this area are related to the following areas: - reduction of noise at the source (new aircraft must meet ICAO requirements for noise measured at three points: during approach, takeoff, climb); - planning and management of the use of territories (measuring noise levels in the immediate vicinity of airports, prohibiting the location of schools, hospitals, religious buildings and some other institutions in this area and a number of other measures); - measures to reduce noise during operation (changes in routes, approach patterns, climb rules, location of runways, that is, redistribution of noise produced to reduce the impact on the most sensitive areas around airports); - restrictions on operation (a ban on the operation of all ships at certain times of the day or a ban on the operation of a certain type of ship, which created, for example, serious problems for Russian carriers in Europe from the beginning of the current decade - Soviet-made ships did not meet ICAO requirements and needed at least least in installing an additional and expensive noise reduction system).
It is also planned to introduce so-called “market measures”, which may include three main elements: - a system of trading quotas for emissions of harmful substances (ETS, Emission
Trading Scheme), or rather its extension to aviation. According to the rules of this system, it is planned to establish a certain maximum total amount of carbon dioxide emissions, within which each company will have a permit for a certain amount of emissions (it has not yet been decided whether these permits will only be sold, or whether companies will receive a certain minimum amount for free). Permits can be freely sold and purchased, including from companies from other industries. If the price of a permit is higher than the company's estimated costs of reducing emissions, this will encourage action to reduce emissions of harmful substances. Conversely, if the price of permits is lower than the cost of abatement, companies will be more likely to purchase permits. In our view, based on the current situation, the aviation sector will most likely be a net buyer of permits; a system of environmental taxes and fines (such as, for example, fuel tax, in-flight emissions tax and others). Such a system will directly influence the demand for transportation (additional taxes passed on to customers will lead to a reduction in traffic volumes and, accordingly, emissions), and will also encourage airlines to introduce a variety of technical and organizational measures to reduce emissions in the event that taxes will be quite high. In principle, it is expected that most of the funds from the environmental tax system will be channeled back into the industry from which they came, to take measures to reduce emissions of harmful substances, such as accelerated decommissioning of older aircraft models, funding technological innovations that help protect the environment;
Current trends in optimizing the air cargo transportation process in the world
For all Russian airlines, including the most successful ones, the most serious problem was the problem of moral and physical deterioration of aircraft equipment, for the renewal of which there was practically no money. Instead of a single monopolist carrier - the strictly regulated, state-owned and largest company in the world, Aeroflot - a huge number (more than 400) of independent carriers of various forms of ownership were formed. Most of these companies were so small, and therefore economically unpromising, that they did not even have sufficient funds to maintain the fleet of aircraft that they received virtually free of charge. Moreover, after the country's transition to free market conditions, airlines found themselves in unusual conditions of functioning as independent economic entities. Without government subsidies, clear regulation and in an environment of relative economic freedom and fierce competition, the sharp decline in demand for air travel has left many companies in an extremely difficult situation. Among the reasons for this difficult situation, one can note such as ineffective management, overstaffing, and, very importantly, outdated aircraft equipment, for extending its service life, and even more so, for the replacement of which the airlines did not have the funds. This aircraft is uncompetitive for a number of reasons: it has 1.5 - 2 times higher specific fuel consumption than foreign analogues, does not meet modern international standards for noise levels, atmospheric emissions, aircraft navigation accuracy and other parameters. For the above reasons, flights of the long-range Il-62 aircraft were practically banned in the USA, and Tu-154, Tu-134 in Europe. The access of Russian aircraft to the Indian market was actually closed - this country introduced strict requirements for the presence of expensive mid-air collision avoidance systems on board aircraft. Since April 2001, such systems have become mandatory for flights over Europe (the cost of re-equipping each aircraft is about 40 thousand dollars), as of April 2002, only 5 types of Russian aircraft can fly over Europe (Il-96, Tu-204, Tu-154M , Yak-42 and Il-62, and only those built after 1990), since the noise and emissions restrictions for airliners enshrined in Chapter 4 of the Chicago Convention began to apply. For all other Russian-made aircraft, the cost of conversion can reach 2.5 million dollars.
In addition to the commercial inefficiency and uncompetitiveness of aircraft, a more serious problem arose: in 1993, when the unified Aeroflot ceased to exist, the Russian aircraft fleet accounted for 26% of the world fleet. Since then, several hundred ships are decommissioned every year, and practically nothing is supplied to replace the “retired” equipment. According to the FAS, during 1998, 339 airplanes and helicopters of various types and purposes were written off, including 130 large aircraft (cargo and passenger). In return, the airlines received only 4 new generation aircraft (domestic), while the number of foreign aircraft in the civil aviation of the Russian Federation almost doubled and reached 54 units in 1998. This quantity was catastrophically insufficient to maintain an acceptable level of competitiveness - with a formal surplus of obsolete airplanes and helicopters, by 2000 the deficit in competitive carrying capacity amounted to almost 30%. Despite all its paradoxical nature, there is a right to exist in the assertion that the reduction in cargo transportation that took place met the interests of carrier companies that could not cope with the large volume of traffic.
At the same time, there is an opposite point of view, which says that the fleet of Russian aircraft in its capabilities still exceeds transportation needs many times over, since the sharp reduction in passenger and cargo traffic after the collapse of the USSR leaves a huge number of aircraft unclaimed. Despite the logic of such a statement, we cannot completely agree with it, since in addition to the physical production of a resource (aging), there is another aspect. Of the 5,899 aircraft on the state register at the beginning of 2007, only 2,680 were in airworthiness, i.e., less than half, and about 1,500 aircraft were actually in operation. At the same time, the fuel efficiency of classic Soviet-generation aircraft, designed for operation in a fundamentally different economic situation, turned out to be extremely low in conditions of rapidly rising prices for fuels and lubricants. The industry average fuel consumption is 58 g/km, with foreign-made vessels being 39 g/km and new domestic ones being 51 g/km. It is very expensive to maintain the airworthiness of the outdated fleet of Tu-134, Tu-154, Il-86, etc.; a shortage of spare parts and a number of other technical difficulties raise the cost of operating new types, such as the Tu-204/214 and Il-96. It should also be taken into account that the operation of such a large number of types of aircraft, as in modern Russian conditions, when most large companies operate and maintain 8-9 types of aircraft, is a very expensive undertaking. It is advisable to unify the types as much as possible, especially since the idea of the maximum possible unification of aircraft has long been considered as very sound. It is known that almost every aircraft, including cargo aircraft, is a unique structure, however, the main manufacturers of aircraft recognize that a certain unification of the aircraft produced (especially cargo aircraft) could significantly reduce their cost, and therefore tariffs. Thus, according to some estimates, the use of a huge number of parts and components from different suppliers leads to an increase in the cost of a civil aircraft by an average of 20%.
Therefore, airlines need aircraft, firstly, of a different passenger and cargo capacity, taking into account the needs of the market and its development trends; and secondly, they meet modern requirements for safety, noise and emissions levels, and fuel economy. All foreign airlines that intend to continue to be present and compete in the global global transportation market are conducting an unprecedented re-equipment of their fleet, purchasing new, modern, fuel-efficient aircraft. This makes the current situation fundamentally different from the past, when, in difficult economic conditions, airlines refrained from ordering new aircraft in anticipation of an improvement in their financial situation. In the current conditions, it is new aircraft with improved characteristics that are the main factor in reducing costs.
Ways to increase the competitiveness of Russian cargo carriers in the global market
Horizontal integration is also important. Strategic alliances among cargo airlines appeared on the global market somewhat later than in the passenger sector, although the need for “horizontal” integration in the air cargo market existed earlier. In the current legal framework for air cargo transportation, it is not practical for a single airline to create and operate a global route network. In addition, the creation of such a network would require huge financial costs. This is confirmed by the fact that today there is not a single traditional cargo airline that operates worldwide. Therefore, expanding horizontal connections and establishing partnerships in various forms is an essential and integral part of the strategy of a successful airline.
Customers are offered virtually a single product - the conditions of transportation and the quality of services offered by alliance airlines are absolutely the same. It is the possibility of increasing the level of quality of service provided by all companies - members of the alliance to the highest in the industry at the moment that is, in our opinion, a fundamentally new reason for the creation and prospects for the functioning of alliances in this area.
Due to the high cost of new ships, about a fifth of orders for their production are placed by leasing companies, including those specializing in leasing under the ACMI (aircraft, maintenance, crew and insurance) system, which includes leasing operations for cargo aircraft with crew, maintenance and insurance, that is, the operator offers the airline a full package of services. This type of leasing opens up new opportunities for airlines: they can use a leased aircraft when demand is uncertain, entering new or expanding in old markets, and offering their services in markets subject to seasonal fluctuations in demand, all without large capital investments and additional costs, for example, for personnel or insurance. The analysis showed that such services are in demand on the market - they account for about 6% of cargo transportation in the world.
In Russia, over the course of several years, the air transportation sector underwent a transition from a planned system of economic relations to a market one, and this transition was carried out in extremely difficult conditions, against the backdrop of general economic deregulation, privatization, and price liberalization, which ultimately had a negative impact on the development of the air services sector.
Under these conditions, airlines began to gradually explore new markets. At the same time, it should be noted that there has been a change in the structure of air transportation, which was expressed, first of all, in an increase in the share of international transportation. For all Russian airlines, including the most successful ones, the most serious problem was the problem of moral and physical deterioration of aircraft equipment, for the renewal of which there was practically no money. This aircraft is uncompetitive for a number of reasons: it has 1.5 - 2 times higher specific fuel consumption than foreign analogues, does not meet modern international standards for noise levels, atmospheric emissions, aircraft navigation accuracy and other parameters.
As a result of the study, it was revealed that airlines need aircraft, firstly, with different passenger and cargo capacity, taking into account the needs of the market and its development trends; and secondly, they meet modern requirements for safety, noise and emissions levels, and fuel economy. All the world's leading airlines, which intend to continue to be present and compete in the global global transportation market, are conducting an unprecedented re-equipment of their fleet, purchasing new, modern, fuel-efficient aircraft. This makes the current situation fundamentally different from the past, when, in difficult economic conditions, airlines refrained from ordering new aircraft in anticipation of an improvement in their financial situation. In the current conditions, it is new aircraft with improved characteristics that are the main factor in reducing costs.
It seems that the main way for Russia to maintain competitiveness in the world market would be the abolition (possibly temporary) of import duties on those types of aircraft in the production of which at this stage the position of domestic manufacturers has been lost completely or partially, that is, long-haul and medium-haul wide-body aircraft.
Currently, in Russia there is a rather specific situation in the field of air cargo transportation, which is characterized by certain features. Let us note the persistent disproportion between domestic and international air transportation. Over the past 15 years, the ratio between them has reached 1:3 in favor of international ones. The development of domestic Russian freight transportation is a pressing but very complex issue. There should be a demand for such transportation, at least due to Russian geography, but over many years of decline in air transportation, shippers have reoriented their logistics schemes to land transport - rail, water and road. Therefore, air transport schemes need to be restored or created anew, which can take a lot of time.
A great impetus to the development of Russian cargo transportation and the economy as a whole could be given by harmonization with generally accepted international standards of customs rules, simplification of procedures and the development of modern technologies.
According to the author, for the successful integration of Russian cargo carriers into the world market, they, first of all, should take into account and make maximum use of the advantages that the specific geographical location of the country and the presence of a fleet of aircraft, which many companies received almost free of charge, can provide; as well as a competent approach to activity management, modern technological advances and the introduction of an international logistics approach to the provision of services.
